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比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!

2017-12-02 20:28:05 和讯名家 

  对于比特币这一世界上最早的电子货币来说,今年一年可谓是前无古人的牛市(后有没有来者不知道)。在这一年里,比特币价格可谓是“火箭式”蹿升。从年初的1000美元上下,一路攀升至近期的10000美元以上。

  下面这张图清楚表明,比特币在这一年里涨速越来越快,感觉已经没有什么力量能阻止它了:

比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!  

  与此同时,其他的数字货币也在以难以想象的速度上涨。从今年初至今,以太币价格已经上涨了约50倍,达到470美元左右,与比特币有着约20倍的价差。

  数字货币价格的飞速上涨,也吸引了各路资本竞相逐鹿。数字货币首发募集(ICO)蓬勃发展起来,仅今年一年的在ICO募集资金总数,就占所有ICO募集资金的92%。 通过这种看似“不靠谱”的机制,约有38亿美元的资金被募集。

  与此同时,ICO也给投机者带来了丰厚的汇报。红杉资本(Mangrove Capital)上个月的一份报告指出,该机构跟踪的204个ICO的平均回报率高达1320%,大大超越了传统投资方式的回报率。

  尽管在中国和韩国暂时被禁止,但ICO并没有放缓其发展的步伐。 本月迄今为止(截至2017年11月26日),ICO已经创下了新高,达到了7.432亿美元,超过了2017年9月创纪录的月份(6.629亿美元)。

  近期比特币持续大幅度的价格上涨已经成为了关注的焦点,疯涨的背后,也引发了市场对于比特币泡沫是否会破灭的广泛担忧。

  例如,资深投资人士Peter Tchir近日就在福布斯撰文,尽管比特币早前与金融市场主流产品对接(如ETF、期货等),有助于推动其价格上涨,但最近陡升的涨幅及一些迹象表明,未来比特币的价格上涨可能有所放缓,甚至出现大幅调整。他还将对比特币的牛市观点转向中立。

  不管比特币是继续疯狂上涨,还是泡沫破灭,大部分的报道都忽略了随之而来的一个意想不到的后果。那就是,为了“挖掘”更多的比特币,全球用电量正在迎来高峰

  比特币挖矿如何消耗电力?

  正如IEEE解释的那样,比特币采矿即使是在非常基本规模上进行,也需要昂贵的计算机硬件,并且消耗大量电力。

  由于挖取比特币使用的计算机硬件规模越来越大,比特币矿的用电量自然越来越高。

  根据Digiconomist发布的比特币能源消费指数,截至2017年11月20日,预计比特币今年全年的用电量为29.05TWh,相当于全球总电力消耗的0.13%。虽然这可能听起来不是很多,但这意味着,目前比特币挖掘所使用的电量之和,超过了全世界159个国家各自的用电量,其中包括尼日利亚这样的非洲国家,也包括了爱尔兰这样的欧洲国家。

比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!

  如果把所有的比特币矿当做一个国家,那么该国的用电量方面排名世界第61位。

  有关比特币挖矿和用电量,还有一些有趣的事实:

  仅过去的一个月,比特币挖矿用电量就增长了29.98%。

  如果以这种速度持续增长,比特币采矿将在2020年2月之前消耗全球所有的电力。

  预计2017全年度全球比特币挖矿收入:72亿美元(54亿英镑)

  预计同期全球挖矿成本:15亿美元(11亿英镑)

  比特币挖矿的用电量相当于:240万美国人的用电量(超过休斯敦人口),也相当于610万英国人的用电量,并超过了美国12个州各自的用电量(阿拉斯加州,夏威夷州,爱达荷州,缅因州,蒙大拿州,新罕布什尔州,新墨西哥州,北达科他州,罗得岛州,南达科他州,佛蒙特州和怀俄明州)。

比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!

  电力消费数据主要来自维基百科,数据主要来源于2014年,因为这是最新的数据。 和其他的一些来源不同,这里的用电量包括住宅,商业和工业的综合,因而可能比别处引用的其他数据更高。

  比特币挖矿用电量:与美国的比较

  在进行研究的同时,我们发现,如果将比特币挖矿用电量与美国各州进行比较,可能会比较有趣。

比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!

  总体而言,比特币挖矿的用电量超过了美国12个州各自的用电量,分别是阿拉斯加州,夏威夷州,爱达荷州,缅因州,蒙大拿州,新罕布什尔州,新墨西哥州,北达科他州,罗得岛州,南达科他州,佛蒙特州和怀俄明州。

  比特币矿用电量:急剧上升

  尽管比特币矿业目前仅消耗全球电力产量的0.13%,但其发展速度却非常快。比特币能源消耗指数估计,比特币挖矿耗电量比上个月上涨了29.98%。 

比特币!别涨那么快了 等一等你的电网!

  如果这个增长率继续下去,并且发电能力不再增加的话,比特币挖掘的用电量将会:

  到2018年10月,超过全英国的用电量(309 TWh)

  到2019年7月,超过全美国的用电量(3,913 TWh)

  到2020年2月份消耗全世界的发电量(21,776 TWh)

  也就是说,如果全世界的发电能力不能和比特币耗电能力增长同步的话,那么2年零4个月后,全世界发的电还不够比特币挖矿的。

  挖矿的动机:利润丰厚?

  比特币能源消耗指数估计,2017年比特币挖矿年度总成本为15亿美元(11亿英镑)。

  但是,我们也可以设想,比特币采矿可以在电力较为便宜的地方进行:美国每千瓦时的平均零售价格为10.41美分,这意味着,使用28.05TWh的电力将耗资30.2亿美元。

  在英国,电费比美国要贵一些,如果你付出每千瓦10.10便士的最低用电价格(约为伦敦家庭购买一只灯泡的价格),那么同样是28.05TWh的电力,总花费将达到29.3亿英镑(合38.9亿美元),比美国要贵26%。

  有趣的是,比特币上个月的涨幅刚刚超过了40%,这一增幅大于挖矿所需电力的增幅。这意味着,考虑到全球比特币挖矿年收入估计为72亿美元(54亿英镑),即使在按照上面更高的成本数据估算,也意味着,挖取比特币依然是获利丰厚的买卖。

  以下为英文原文,略有修改

  Will Bitcoin Mining Consume All The World's Current ElectricityProduction By Feb 2020?

  Bitcoin’songoing meteoric price rise has received the bulk of recent press attentionwith a lot of discussion around whether or not it’s a bubble waiting to burst.

  However, most the coverage has missed out oneof the more interesting and unintended consequences of this price increase.That is the surge in global electricity consumption used to “mine” moreBitcoins.

  How Does Bitcoin Mining ConsumeElectricity?

  At a very basic level Bitcoin mining requires expensive and powerhungry computer hardware. As the the IEEEexplains:

  Mining power is high and getting higher,thanks to a computational arms race. Recall thatthe required number of zeros at the beginning of a hash is tweaked biweekly toadjust the difficulty of creating a block—and more zeros means more difficulty.

  The Bitcoin algorithm adds these zeros in order to keep the rateat which blocks are added constant, at one new block every 10 minutes. The idea is to compensate forthe mining hardware becoming more and more powerful.

  When the hashing is harder, it takes morecomputations to create a block and thus more effort to earn new bitcoins, whichare then added to circulation.

  According to Digiconomist’s Bitcoin EnergyConsumption Index, as of Monday November 20th, 2017 Bitcoin’s currentestimated annual electricity consumption stands at 29.05TWh.

  That’s the equivalent of 0.13% of total globalelectricity consumption. While that may not sound like a lot, it means Bitcoin mining is now using more electricity than159 individual countries (as you can see from themap below). More than Ireland or Nigeria.

  If Bitcoin miners were a country they’d rank 61st in the world in terms ofelectricity consumption.

  Hereare a few other interesting facts about Bitcoin mining and electricityconsumption:

  o Inthe past month alone, Bitcoin mining electricity consumption is estimated tohave increased by 29.98%

  o Ifit keeps increasing at this rate, Bitcoin mining will consume all the world’s electricity byFebruary 2020.

  o Estimatedannualised global mining revenues: $7.2billion USD (£5.4 billion)

  o Estimatedglobal mining costs: $1.5billion USD (£1.1 billion)

  o Numberof Americans who could be powered by bitcoin mining: 2.4 million (more thanthe population of Houston)

  o Numberof Britons who could be powered by bitcoin mining: 6.1 million (more thanthe population of Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Bradford,Liverpool, Bristol, Croydon, Coventry, Leicester & Nottingham combined) OrScotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

  o BitcoinMining consumes more electricity than 12 US states (Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine,Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota,Vermont and Wyoming)

  All maps created using Mapchart.net.

  Bitcoin Mining ElectricityConsumption Vs Countries

  The mapabove shows which countries currently consume more or less electricity thanthat consumed by global Bitcoin mining.

  The map below shows how much more or lessbitcoin mining energy consumption compares to each countries energy usage with100% being equal.

  E.g.Ireland currently consumes an estimated 25 TWh of electricity per year, soglobal Bitcoin mining consumption is 116%, or 16% more than they consume. TheUK consumes an estimated 309 TWh of electricity per year so global Bitcoinmining consumption is only equivalent to 9.4% of the UK total.

  As mentioned, above the data for Bitcoin mining energy consumptioncomes from the BitcoinEnergy Consumption Index. You can read abouttheir assumptionshere.

  Electricity consumption data mostly comes from the CIA via Wikipedia and is mostly for 2014, since that’s the most recent yearavailable. Unlike some other sources it includes, residential, commercial andindustrial use, so may be higher than other figures quoted elsewhere.

  Bitcoin Mining ElectricityConsumption Vs US States

  Whiledoing the research we also though it might be interesting to compare Bitcoinmining energy consumption to US states. Overall, 12 States consume lesselectricity than Bitcoin Mining (Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, NewHampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont andWyoming).

  Growth of Bitcoin MiningElectricity Consumption

  While Bitcoin Mining is only currently consuming 0.13% of the world’selectricity output, it’s growing incredibly quickly.

  The Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index estimates consumption hasincreased by 29.98% over the past month.

  If thatgrowth rate were to continue, and countries did not add any new powergenerating capacity, Bitcoin mining would:

  o Begreater than UK electricity consumption by October 2018 (309 TWh)

  o Begreater than US electricity consumption by July 2019 (3,913 TWh)

  o Consume all the world’selectricity by February 2020. (21,776 TWh)

  The Cost of Mining Bitcoins

  The Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index estimates that the totalannual cost of mining Bitcoins stands at $1.5 billion (£1.1 billion).

  However,that assumes Bitcoin mining is occurring in places with cheap electricity (notan unreasonable assumption).

  The US average retail price per kilowatthour is 10.41 cents, whichmeans using 28.05 TWh would cost: $3.02 billion (£2.28 billion).

  In the UK it would even more expensive, assuming you paid the rockbottom price of 10.10 pence per kilowatthour (Bulb’s prices for London homes) it would still cost £2.93 billion ($3.89 billion).

  Interestingly, Bitcoin’s priceincrease over the last month has been just over 40%, which is greater than theincrease in electricity consumption.

  This means the estimated annualised global mining revenues nowstand at $7.2 billion USD (£5.4 billion), which even at the more expensive estimates listed above, meansit’s still very profitable.

  

(责任编辑:赵然 HZ002)
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